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Economic Indicators
(By the Numbers) |
In formulating the nation's monetary policy,
the Federal Reserve considers a number of factors, including
the economic and financial indicators which follow, as
well as the anecdotal reports compiled in the Beige
Book .
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1 page / 11 kb Definition:
The total value of goods and services produced within
the borders of the United States, regardless of who
owns the assets or the nationality of the labor used
in producing that output. (In contrast, Gross National
Product (GNP) measures the output of the citizens of
the US and the income from assets owned by US entities,
regardless of where located.) The growth of output is
measured in real terms, meaning increases in output
due to inflation have been removed.
Source: US Department of Commerce; Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Frequency: Quarterly
Availability: Data are typically released during
the final week of the month. The first or advance estimate
is released during the final week of the month immediately
following the end of a calendar quarter.
Reason: The Federal Reserve's primary goal is
sustained growth of the economy with full employment
and stable prices. Real GDP is the most comprehensive
measure of the performance of the U.S. economy. By monitoring
trends in the overall growth rate as well as the unemployment
rate and the rate of inflation, policy makers are able
to assess whether the current stance of monetary policy
is consistent with that primary goal.
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1 page / 12 kb Definition:
An index designed to measure the change in price of
a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market
basket of goods and services is representative of the
purchases of a typical urban consumer. The index is
intended to measure pure price change only; attempts
are made to remove changes in price resulting from changes
in quality.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Frequency: Monthly
Availability: Generally available the second
week of the month immediately following the month for
which data is being released; always released after
the Producer Price Index.
Reason: The rate of change of the CPI is one
of the key measures of inflation for the U.S. economy.
Acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal
that a change in monetary policy may be appropriate.
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1 page / 12 kb Definition:
An estimate of the number of payroll jobs at all nonfarm
business establishments and government agencies. Information
is also provided on the average number of hours worked
per week and average hourly and weekly earnings.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Frequency: Monthly
Availability: Usually the first Friday of the
month for the immediately preceding month; occasionally
released on the second Friday.
Reason: Growth of employment and hours worked
provide important information about the current and
likely future pace of overall economic growth. Trends
in average hourly earnings provide information about
supply and demand conditions in labor markets, which
may provide signals about the overall level of resource
utilization in the economy. |
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1 page / 26 kb Definition:
An estimate of the number of housing units on which
construction was started. Starting construction is defined
as excavation for the footings or foundation, or the
first shovel of dirt to break ground. (In response to
natural disasters such as Hurricane Andrew in August
of 1992, that definition has been expanded to a housing
unit built on an existing foundation after the previous
structure had been completely destroyed.) Housing starts
are divided into single-family and multifamily(2+) units.
Beginning construction on a 100 unit apartment building,
for example, is counted as 100 starts.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of
the Census
Frequency: Monthly
Availability: Around 15th of the month for the
immediately preceding month
Reason: Housing is perhaps the most interest-rate
sensitive sector of the economy. It often experiences
large swings in activity in response to changes in the
level of long-term interest rates such as those on mortgages.
While residential investment represents just four percent
of the level of GDP, due to its volatility it frequently
represents a much higher proportion of changes in GDP
over relatively short periods of time. Policy makers
monitor the housing sector very carefully for clues
about the near-term performance of the economy and for
the effects of changes in financial conditions. |
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1 page / 12 kb Definition:
An index designed to measure changes in the level of
output in the industrial sector of the economy. The
index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business
equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry
(manufacturing, mining, and utilities).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
Frequency: Monthly
Availability: Preliminary estimate released around
the middle of the month for the immediately preceding
month.
Reason: While the industrial sector of the economy
represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes
in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector
changes in this index provide useful information on
the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization
in the industrial sector provides information on the
overall level of resource utilization in the economy
which may in turn provide information on the likely
future course of inflation.
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1 page / 11 kb Definition:
An estimate of the total sales of goods by all retail
establishments in the U.S. (Sales of services are not
included.) Data are presented in nominal, or current,
dollars, meaning they are not adjusted for inflation.
However, the data are adjusted for seasonal, holiday,
and trading-day differences between the months of the
year. Sales are categorized by type of establishment,
not by type of good.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
Frequency: Monthly
Availability: Advance estimate released during
the second week of the month for the immediately preceding
month.
Reason: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
represent roughly two-thirds of GDP. By monitoring retail
sales, policy makers are able to make an assessment
of the likely growth of PCE for the current and future
quarters. |
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1 page / 20 kb Definition:
Total current-dollar sales and inventories for the
manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sectors of the
economy.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of
the Census
Frequency: Monthly
Availability: About six weeks from the end of
the month; for example, data for June are reported in
mid August.
Reason: This release is the primary source of
data on inventories. The rate of inventory accumulation
plays a key role in determining the current pace of
economic growth and often provides useful clues about
the future pace of growth as well. For example, if inventories
are accumulating at a rapid pace, such that inventory
sales ratios are rising, it may portend a slowing of
growth in the near future as firms cut production to
bring inventories back into line with sales. Vice versa,
if inventories are growing slowly or actually falling,
it may signal a future pickup in production. |
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1 page / 20 kb Definition:
Data on shipments, new orders, and unfilled orders,
expressed in current dollars, for things such as primary
metals, fabricated metals, electric generating equipment,
nonelectrical machinery, information processing equipment,
and transportation equipment, including civilian and
military aircraft and ships, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty
trucks, and automobiles.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of
the Census
Frequency: Monthly
Availability: Fourth week of the month for the
immediately preceding month.
Reason: The data in this report provide information
on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign
sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods. Rising
orders, shipments, and unfilled orders suggest demand
is strengthening, which will likely result in increasing
production and employment, while falling orders, shipments,
and unfilled orders suggest the opposite. Data in this
release also provides information on the current and
likely future pace of business investment in new equipment.
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1 page / 18 kb Definition:
Total unit sales and leases of domestic and imported
new automobiles and light-weight trucks (up to 10,000
pounds gross vehicle weight). Includes sales and leases
to both consumers and businesses.
Source: Not-seasonally-adjusted sales data: Ward's
Automotive Reports and the American Automobile Manufacturers
Association. Seasonal adjustment factors: U.S. Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Frequency: First, second, and third 10 days of
each month and monthly
Availability: Third business day after the relevant
selling period.
Reason: While a relatively small component of
the overall economy, changes in light-weight vehicle
sector often account for a large part of quarter-to-quarter
changes in the rate of growth of GDP. |
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1 page / 10 kb Definition:
The current market interest rate or yield on U.S. Treasury
bonds maturing 10 years in the future.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
Frequency: Daily
Availability: Daily data available in most major
newspapers; daily, weekly, and monthly data are reported
in the H.15 report which is released each Monday by
the FED.
Reason: Movements in long-term interest rates
such as the 10-year Treasury rate provide information
about likely future changes in the level of activity
in the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. For
example, mortgage interest rates often move in tandem
with the 10-year Treasury rate, and changes in mortgage
rates often precede changes in the level of activity
in housing markets. |
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1 page / 10 kb Definition:
One of several indices designed to measure changes in
price of a broad array of stocks.
Source: Compiled by Standard & Poors. Available
in most major newspapers and several on-line market
information sources.
Frequency: Daily through newspapers; instantaneous
through on line information sources.
Reason: The stock market is one measure of the
current value of the nation's stock of capital and is
often viewed as a barometer of business and consumer
confidence regarding the future. A high and/or rising
stock market may signal robust growth of business investment
and consumer spending in the near future while a low
and/or falling stock market may signal sluggish spending.
For this reason, the S&P 500 is one component of
the Index of Leading Indicators. |
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1 page / 10 kb Definition:
One measure of the nation's supply of money, defined
as M1 (currency in circulation, demand deposits, travelers'
checks, and other checkable deposits) plus noninstitutional
money market funds and small time and savings deposits.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
Frequency: Weekly and monthly.
Availability: H.6 report. Weekly data released
each Thursday afternoon after 4:30 p.m. Monthly data
released in either the second or third week of the month.
Reason: While the strength of the relationship
has weakened over time, many people believe there is
a link between growth of the supply of money and growth
of nominal GDP. |
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